Nine in ten firms report no AI productivity impact

Nine in ten firms reported no AI impact on productivity or employment over the previous three years, even though 69% actively use AI, according to an NBER survey of nearly 6,000 senior executives. Those same executives forecast a 1.4% productivity gain over the next three years, leaving measurement—not access—as the immediate operating problem; teams should follow the logic of requiring 300 active user-days before buying Copilot licenses and instrument completed-work outcomes before scaling seats.